Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Busby Gains on Bilbray in Ca-50

In the traditionally Republican city of San Diego, Democrat Francine Busby has gained 11 points on her opponent Brian Bilbray. The same Bilbray, who was sworn in by House Republicans BEFORE the special election was certified.

From Survey USA 10/16/06
Likely Voters (581/800), MOE: +/- 4.1%

Bilbray (R): 49%
Busby (D) : 46%
Clark (Peace and Freedom Pary): 3%
King (Libertarian) : 2%
Undecided: 1%

The good news for Busby is that her gains come from a shink in the number of "likely Republican voters". Turnout is the deciding factor in most mid-term elections. If Republicans are staying home, and the national trend is that they are, capturing both Houses is not out of the question.
By my estimation, wins for the lower chamber do not require a nationwide sweep, but winning back or making gains in only a few states. Texas seems to be swinging blue. The Republicans seem to have surrendered in New York and most certainly Ohio. Pennsylvania and California should gain the Democrats seats as well.
This is not to say that nationwide victories are not important, they are. The above is just an appraisal of establishing a majority. Polls nationwide show that this could be a reversal of the so called "revolution.
Once again, for both parties:

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